Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

943
FXUS62 KRAH 060940
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
540 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from previous forecast thinking

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 148 AM Tuesday...

1) Dry today, cool tonight.

2) A dry week mid to late week is expected. Temperatures will warm
to above normal from Wednesday through Saturday. The next chance of
rain returns this weekend, but most of it may hold off until Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 148 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry today, cool tonight.

A dry cold front was located over southern VA this morning,
identified not only by a southward progressing pre-frontal stratocu
deck, but also by decreased dewpoints in the 40s. Ahead of the front
across central NC, lingering mid/upper 50s dewpoints and light/calm
winds have supported some patchy fog since late Monday evening.
Between the southward progressing stratocu deck, increased mixing,
and the subsequent arrival of lower dewpoints, it`s expected that
fog should gradually dissipate as the morning goes on.  I`ll keep a
mention of patchy fog in the forecast through daybreak but
conditions should gradually improve.

All in all, it should be a quiet weather day once the front moves
through. Winds may briefly gust this morning as the BL deepens and
taps into the 25-30kt 925mb winds, but this should rapidly diminish
through the day. It`ll be cooler today with temps generally in the
upper 60s (north) to mid 70s (south). The more noticeable cooldown
will come tonight. Between clear skies and light/calm winds, look
for lows to easily bottom out in the low to mid 40s, if not upper
30s in the normally cooler/protected areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry week mid to late week is expected.
Temperatures will warm to above normal from Wednesday through
Saturday. The next chance of rain returns this weekend, but most of
it may hold off until Sunday.

The dry and cool surface high pressure will move off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. A dry reinforcing cold
front will slip through NC late Thursday and Thursday night.
Therefore, sunny and dry conditions are expected Wednesday with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. As the winds become SW at 10-15
mph ahead of the front Thursday, there will be little moisture to
work with. Expect mainly sunny skies and warming temperatures into
the mid 80s. Record daily highs are in the lower to mid 90s, so they
are not in play. It will be slightly cooler behind the front Friday
with highs around 80. Lows will be mostly in the lower to mid 50s
this week, warmest Friday morning (near 60 in some locations).

The next chance of showers appears to be over the weekend. There
continues to be quite a bit of model spread with the potential Gulf
to SE United States system, with the EC ensemble continued to be
preferred, which may obviously change with time. As of right now,
the EC depicts higher rain chances have moved 6-12 hours later than
previously forecast. The period between Saturday night through
Monday morning appear to be when the most significant rain will
fall.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 540 AM Tuesday...

Surface cold frontal boundary is oriented roughly along US-1 this
morning, with substantially drier air and VFR conditions behind the
front across the western Piedmont and pockets of MVFR cigs and vsbys
ahead of it to the east. The front should slide through RDU/RWI
between 10Z-12Z and FAY shortly after 12Z, with VFR ceilings and
vsbys taking hold thereafter. After that, expect VFR conditions at
all sites through Wednesday morning.

Outlook: VFR weather expected for the remainder of the week through
the first part of the weekend. Increased moisture arriving this
weekend could result in periods of non-VFR weather late Saturday
into early next week although timing/confidence in the specifics is
low at this point. Rain chances appear to be highest on Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Badgett
AVIATION...Leins